グロース氏:金融緩和、全ての資産価格を不適正水準に押し上げ - Bloomberg
「債券や株、代替資産と、あらゆる資産の価格は基本的に適正ではなく、人為的に押し上げられている」
「金融当局はそのことを認識しており、できる限りそうした影響を小さくしたいと考えていると思われる。政策の転換において当局が実施するのは、経済に効果が見られ、可能であれば2014年末までに終了させる水準にまで量的緩和を縮小することだ」
金融当局者は今年に入り、金融市場におけるバブルのリスクについて指摘している。株価は過去最高水準に上昇し、債券利回りは歴史的低水準付近にとどまっている。カンザスシティー連銀のジョージ総裁は農地の値上がりに懸念を表明。ダラス連銀のフィッシャー総裁はダラスとヒューストンでの住宅価格上昇について、住宅バブルの兆候だと指摘した。FRBのスタイン理事とパウエル理事も、一部の債券では投資家が認識しているリスクに比べて利回りが低過ぎる可能性があると警告している。
当局は債券購入ペースを減速させるとともに「政策金利を0.25%で極めて長期間維持するということに関して、フォワードガイダンスを利用する」とグロース氏は予想。資産バブルのリスク、およびこれまでの債券購入に伴う当局のバランスシートへのリスクを考えると、「当局は基本的に量的緩和からの脱却を望んでいる。フォワードガイダンス政策に移行し、状況はそう大きく変わらないと投資家が確信できるようにする必要がある」と述べた。
Gross Says All Asset Markets Artificially Mispriced by Fed - Bloomberg
“All asset prices, whether it be bonds, stocks, alternative assets are basically mispriced, artificially elevated,”
“And I think the Fed knows that and wants to diminish that effect to the extent that they can. What they are going to do in terms of transition, we think, is simply to reduce quantitative easing to the point that by the end of 2014 they eliminate it, if they can if the economy responds.”
Fed officials this year have said there’s a risk of financial-market bubbles, as stock prices rose to record level and bond yields remained near historic lows. Kansas City Fed President Esther George has highlighted an increase in farmland prices as a concern, and Richard Fisher, president of the Dallas Fed, has pointed to rising home prices in Dallas and Houston as a sign of a U.S. housing bubble. Fed Governors Jeremy Stein and Jerome Powell also have warned this year that some bond yields might be too low for the risk investors are taking.
U.S. shares are five years into a rally that has restored about $14 trillion to share prices. The Nasdaq Composite Index topped 4,000 for first time in 13 years on Nov. 26. Treasury 10-year note yields, which rose today to an 11-week high as reports showing the economy expanded added to speculation the Fed will slow bond purchases as soon as this month, touched as low as 1.61 percent this year on May 1. The average for the 10-year yield back through 1986 is 5.46 percent.
Labor Department data tomorrow will show the U.S. economy added 185,000 jobs last month and the unemployment rate fell to 7.2 percent, the lowest level since 2008, economists in Bloomberg surveys forecast. ADP Research Institute said yesterday U.S. companies hired 215,000 workers in November, more than the most optimistic forecast among economists surveyed.
The Fed will as they slow bond purchases “then use forward guidance in terms of maintain a policy rate of 25 basis points for a long, long time,” Gross said. Given risks of asset bubbles and to their balance sheet from all the bond buying, “the Fed basically wants out of there and they need to basically replace it with a forward guidance policy that allows investors to be confident that things aren’t going to be changed so much.”