FRB: Press Release--Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement --March 19, 2014

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January indicates that growth in economic activity slowed during the winter months, in part reflecting adverse weather conditions. Labor market indicators were mixed but on balance showed further improvement. The unemployment rate, however, remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment continued to advance, while the recovery in the housing sector remained slow. Fiscal policy is restraining economic growth, although the extent of restraint is diminishing. Inflation has been running below the Committee's longer-run objective, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market conditions will continue to improve gradually, moving toward those the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee sees the risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market as nearly balanced. The Committee recognizes that inflation persistently below its 2 percent objective could pose risks to economic performance, and it is monitoring inflation developments carefully for evidence that inflation will move back toward its objective over the medium term.

The Committee currently judges that there is sufficient underlying strength in the broader economy to support ongoing improvement in labor market conditions. In light of the cumulative progress toward maximum employment and the improvement in the outlook for labor market conditions since the inception of the current asset purchase program, the Committee decided to make a further measured reduction in the pace of its asset purchases. Beginning in April, the Committee will add to its holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $25 billion per month rather than $30 billion per month, and will add to its holdings of longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $30 billion per month rather than $35 billion per month. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee's sizable and still-increasing holdings of longer-term securities should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative, which in turn should promote a stronger economic recovery and help to ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with the Committee's dual mandate.

The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months and will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability. If incoming information broadly supports the Committee's expectation of ongoing improvement in labor market conditions and inflation moving back toward its longer-run objective, the Committee will likely reduce the pace of asset purchases in further measured steps at future meetings. However, asset purchases are not on a preset course, and the Committee's decisions about their pace will remain contingent on the Committee's outlook for the labor market and inflation as well as its assessment of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases.

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy remains appropriate. In determining how long to maintain the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. The Committee continues to anticipate, based on its assessment of these factors, that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and provided that longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored.

When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.

With the unemployment rate nearing 6-1/2 percent, the Committee has updated its forward guidance. The change in the Committee's guidance does not indicate any change in the Committee's policy intentions as set forth in its recent statements.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Richard W. Fisher; Sandra Pianalto; Charles I. Plosser; Jerome H. Powell; Jeremy C. Stein; and Daniel K. Tarullo.

Voting against the action was Narayana Kocherlakota, who supported the sixth paragraph, but believed the fifth paragraph weakens the credibility of the Committee's commitment to return inflation to the 2 percent target from below and fosters policy uncertainty that hinders economic activity.

米FOMC声明全文 | Reuters

1月の連邦公開市場委員会(FOMC)以降に入手した情報は、悪天候の影響をある程度反映して経済活動の成長が冬場に鈍化した(slowed)ことを指し示している。労働市場の指標はまちまちだが、全体としては一層の改善を示した。しかしながら失業率は高止まりしたままだ。家計支出と企業の設備投資は引き続き伸びたが、住宅部門の回復は遅いままだった(remained slow)。その度合いは小さくなっているが、財政政策は経済成長を抑制している。インフレ率は委員会の長期的な政策目標を下回っているが、長期的なインフレ期待は安定的にとどまった。

 委員会は法律上与えられた責務に従って、最大限の雇用と物価安定の促進を目指す。委員会は適切な政策緩和があれば、経済活動は緩やかなペースで拡大(expand at moderate pace)し、労働市場の状況はゆっくり改善し続け、委員会が二大責務と合致していると判断する状況に向かうと予測する。経済および労働市場の見通しに対するリスクはほぼ安定しているとみている。委員会は目標の2%を恒常的に下回るようなインフレ率は経済成長にとってリスクとなり得ると認識しており、中期的にはインフレ率が目標に向かって戻るだろうという根拠を求めてインフレ動向を注意深く見守っている。

 委員会はより広範な経済に、現在継続している労働市場の状況の改善を支えるのに十分な基調的な力強さ( sufficient underlying strength)があると現在判断する。最大雇用と労働市場の状況の見通し改善に向けた現行の資産購入が始まって以来の累積的な進展を考慮して、委員会は資産購入のペースを一段と慎重に減速させる(further measured reduction)ことを決定した。委員会は4月から、保有するエージェンシー発行モーゲージ債(MBS)を月額300億ドルではなく250億ドルのペースで、米長期国債は月額350億ドルではなく300億ドルのペースで追加購入することを決めた。委員会は、保有している政府機関債とMBSから得る償還資金をMBSに再投資し、米国債の償還資金を新発債に再投資する既存の政策を維持する。委員会が保有する長期国債は相当の量に上り、依然増え続けている。このことは長期金利に引き下げ圧力をかけ、住宅ローン市場を支援し、より広範な金融状況をさらに緩和する上で役立ち、ひいてはより力強い景気回復を進めるとともに、インフレが時間とともに二大責務に最も一致した水準になることを促すはずだ。

 委員会は今後数カ月間に入手する経済、金融の動向に関する情報を注意深く見守るとともに、物価安定の下で労働市場の見通しが著しく改善するまで米国債MBSの購入を継続し、必要に応じてほかの政策手段を行使する。もし入手する情報が、労働市場の改善が進み、インフレ率が長期的な目標に向かって戻るという委員会の見通しを広範に裏付けるならば、委員会は今後の会合でさらに慎重な足取り(further measured steps)で購入ペースを縮小するだろう。資産購入にはあらかじめ定まった道筋(preset course)はない。委員会のペース決定は予測される資産購入の効率とコストの評価だけでなく、委員会の労働市場とインフレの見通しにも従うことになるだろう。

 最大雇用と物価安定を目指した改善継続を支援するため、委員会は本日、資産購入が終了し景気回復が強まった後も相当な期間、極めて緩和的な金融政策の運営姿勢が適切であるとの見解を再確認した。現行の0%から0.25%というフェデラルファンド(FF)金利の目標誘導の範囲を維持する期間を決める際に、委員会は最大雇用とインフレ率2%の目標に向けた進展の実績と予測の双方を評価する。この評価は、労働市場の状況に関する指標、インフレ圧力とインフレ期待の指標、金融情勢の状況など幅広い範囲の情報を考慮する。委員会は、こうした要因の評価を基に、とりわけ予測されるインフレ率が2%の長期的な目標より低くとどまり、長期的なインフレ期待が十分に抑制されたままとどまるようなら、現行のFF金利の目標誘導レンジを資産購入が終了した後も相当な期間(considerable time)維持することが適切になるだろうと引き続き予測する。





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