FRB: Press Release--Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement--April 30, 2014

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March indicates that growth in economic activity has picked up recently, after having slowed sharply during the winter in part because of adverse weather conditions. Labor market indicators were mixed but on balance showed further improvement. The unemployment rate, however, remains elevated. Household spending appears to be rising more quickly. Business fixed investment edged down, while the recovery in the housing sector remained slow. Fiscal policy is restraining economic growth, although the extent of restraint is diminishing. Inflation has been running below the Committee's longer-run objective, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market conditions will continue to improve gradually, moving toward those the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee sees the risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market as nearly balanced. The Committee recognizes that inflation persistently below its 2 percent objective could pose risks to economic performance, and it is monitoring inflation developments carefully for evidence that inflation will move back toward its objective over the medium term.

The Committee currently judges that there is sufficient underlying strength in the broader economy to support ongoing improvement in labor market conditions. In light of the cumulative progress toward maximum employment and the improvement in the outlook for labor market conditions since the inception of the current asset purchase program, the Committee decided to make a further measured reduction in the pace of its asset purchases. Beginning in May, the Committee will add to its holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $20 billion per month rather than $25 billion per month, and will add to its holdings of longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $25 billion per month rather than $30 billion per month. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee's sizable and still-increasing holdings of longer-term securities should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative, which in turn should promote a stronger economic recovery and help to ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with the Committee's dual mandate.

The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months and will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability. If incoming information broadly supports the Committee's expectation of ongoing improvement in labor market conditions and inflation moving back toward its longer-run objective, the Committee will likely reduce the pace of asset purchases in further measured steps at future meetings. However, asset purchases are not on a preset course, and the Committee's decisions about their pace will remain contingent on the Committee's outlook for the labor market and inflation as well as its assessment of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases.

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy remains appropriate. In determining how long to maintain the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. The Committee continues to anticipate, based on its assessment of these factors, that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and provided that longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored.

When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Richard W. Fisher; Narayana Kocherlakota; Sandra Pianalto; Charles I. Plosser; Jerome H. Powell; Jeremy C. Stein; and Daniel K. Tarullo.

米FOMC声明全文 | Reuters

3月の連邦公開市場委員会(FOMC)以降に入手した情報は、経済活動の伸びが悪天候の影響もあって冬場に急激に鈍化した後、最近は上向いた(picked up)ことを示している。

労働市場の指標はまちまちだったが、全体として一層の改善を示した。しかしながら失業率は高止まりしている。家計支出は一層急速に伸びている(rising more quickly)ようだ。企業の設備投資は鈍り(edged down)、住宅部門の回復は遅いままだった。財政政策が経済成長を抑制しているが、その度合いは小さくなってきている。インフレ率は委員会の長期的な目標を下回っているが、長期的なインフレ期待は引き続き安定している。

委員会は法律上与えられた責務に従って、雇用最大化と物価安定の促進を目指す。委員会は、適切な政策緩和で経済活動が緩やかなペース(at a moderate pace)で拡大し、労働市場の状況はゆっくりと改善し続け、委員会が二大責務と合致していると判断する状態に向かうと予測している。委員会は経済見通しと労働市場にとってのリスクはほぼ安定しているとみている。委員会はインフレ率が目標の2%を恒常的に下回っていることが経済成長にとってリスクになり得ると認識しており、中期的にはインフレ率が目標に向かって戻るという根拠を求めて物価上昇の動向を注意深く見守っている。

委員会は、労働市場で続く状況改善を支えるのに十分な基調的な力強さ(sufficient underlying strength)が、より広範な経済に存在すると判断している。現行の資産購入プログラム開始以降に起きた最大雇用への進展の積み重ねや労働市場状況の見通し改善を考慮して、委員会は資産購入ペースをさらに慎重に減速(a further measured reduction)すると決めた。5月から委員会は、エージェンシー発行モーゲージ債(MBS)については、これまでの月250億ドルから200億ドルに、米長期国債は月300億ドルから250億ドルに追加購入のペースを落とす。委員会は保有する政府機関債とMBSの償還元本をMBSに再投資し、米国債の償還金を新発債に再投資する既存の政策を維持する。委員会による長期証券の保有が相当な規模に及び、依然として増え続けていることは、長期金利に対して引き下げ圧力をかけ、住宅ローン市場を支え、より広範な金融環境を一段と緩和する上で役立つ。そのことはより力強い景気回復を進めるとともに、インフレが時間とともに二大債務に最も一致した水準となることを促すはずだ。

委員会は今後数カ月の間に入ってくる経済や金融の動向に関する情報を注意深く見守るとともに、物価安定の下で労働市場の見通しが大幅に改善するまで米国債MBSの購入を継続し、必要に応じてほかの政策手段を行使する。もし入ってくる情報が、労働市場の改善が進みインフレ率も長期的目標に向かって戻るという見通しを広範に裏付けるならば、今後の会合で委員会はさらに慎重な足取りで(in further measured steps)購入ペースを落とすだろう。しかしながら、資産購入にあらかじめ定められた道筋(preset course)はない。購入ペースに関する決定は、委員会の労働市場とインフレの見通しのほか、購入に伴って予測される効率とコストの評価次第にも左右される。


委員会が政策緩和を解除すると決める時には、最大雇用と2%のインフレという長期目標と一致するバランスの取れた方策を取る。委員会は、雇用とインフレが責務に合致する水準に近づいた後も、経済状況は当面(for a considerable time)、FF金利の誘導目標を委員会が長期的に正常とみなす水準を下回るレベルに維持することを正当化すると現在想定している。


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