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グロース氏：ＦＯＭＣは「ハト派的」になるだろう−原油安で - Bloomberg

グロース氏は12日、ブルームバーグ・ラジオとのインタビューで、米連邦公開市場委員会（ＦＯＭＣ）は原油価格の下落を「考慮する」必要があるだろうと発言。「市場が数日前に期待していた見方に比べると、当局のスタンスはハト派に傾くと私は考える」と述べた。

インフレが当局の目標である２％に近づく兆しがまったく見られない中、ＦＯＭＣは利上げを急がないだろうとグロース氏は指摘。

「米国自体がデフレではないもののディスインフレの状態にあり、２％の目標に向かっていないのは確実であるのに、『相当な期間』に関する文言を削除し始めるだろうか」と話した。

同氏はさらに、原油価格の急落に市場は惑わされ、企業や国の信用度に関する見方が変わるなどゆがみが生じていると述べた。

グロース氏は「レバレッジを効かせたマネーが安全な逃避先を求めて移動すれば、価格変動は極めて激しくなるものだ」とし、特に高利回り債を中心に社債市場には「流動性がほとんどない」と付け加えた。

Gross Says Fed May Become ‘Dovish’ as Oil Prices Plunge - Bloomberg

The Federal Reserve would have to take lower oil prices “into consideration,” Gross said today in a Bloomberg Surveillance interview with Tom Keene. “I think that yes, it moves towards a dovish stance relative to what the market expected a few days ago.”

Benchmark U.S. oil prices have fallen below $60 a barrel, extending losses today as the International Energy Agency cut its global demand forecast for the fourth time in five months. Gross said with inflation showing no signs of approaching the Fed’s 2 percent target, policy makers won’t be in a hurry to raise interest rates.

“Why would they start to eliminate language that talked about an extensive period of time when the U.S. itself is, not deflating but disinflating, and certainly not moving in the direction of its 2 percent target,” Gross said.

The sharp decline in the price of oil has disoriented markets and changed the perception of the creditworthiness of companies and countries, said Gross, who co-founded Pacific Investment Management Co. in 1971 and left the firm Sept. 26 to run an unconstrained bond fund at Janus.

“When levered money moves and tries to seek a safe haven, basically you have violent price movements,” Gross said, adding there is “very little liquidity” in the corporate bond markets, especially in high-yield debt. “Everyone is trying to squeeze through a very small door.”

With the U.S. economy still “highly levered” and dependent on cheap financing, the equilibrium interest rate may be close to where rates are now, Gross said.

“I call it the new natural, Pimco called it the new neutral,” Gross said, adding that Fed governors “talk about natural interest rates as opposed to neutral interest rates, so it’s a better one.”

“I think its closer to zero percent real and maybe even lower, which is close to where we are now,” he said.

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