Analysis: Japan PM to push security agenda next year with fresh urgency | Reuters
Ironically, the drop in opinion polls -- plus fears of an economic relapse after the national 5 percent sales tax rises to 8 percent in April -- may encourage the Japanese leader to push for the change rather than wait and risk further declines that would undercut his clout in his own party, some experts said.
"You should not forget that the strength of Abe comes not from his conservative agenda but from his management of the economy," said a former government official. "An economic downturn could change that picture."
Another sales tax hike to 10 percent, to rein in Japan's huge public debt, is slated for 2015 and would be especially controversial if the economy sags, sapping political energy.
"If he pushes it (lifting the ban) through, it will be disastrous but it is quite likely that he will," said lawmaker Seiichiro Murakami. A rare outspoken critic of Abe in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, Murakami predicts that steamrolling controversial security policies risks sparking a voter backlash, especially if the economy stumbles.
"There will be no change in his stance, but the problems have increased," said former defense official Kyouji Yanagisawa. "If he rushes, criticism will emerge from inside the ruling parties," added Yanagisawa, who handled security matters at the prime minister's office during Abe's first term.
Abe's high popularity rates have been a key factor silencing potential critics in the ruling bloc. Critics have said lifting the ban is more likely to mean Japan gets involved in armed conflicts overseas that put Japanese lives at risk.
Liberal media and intellectuals would probably try to rally public opinion against the change, but many in the opposition Democratic Party and smaller parties support lifting the ban.
"It is important to have a more effective framework for Japan-U.S. (military) operations, including collective self-defense," said Democratic Party lawmaker Seiji Maehara, a former foreign minister.
