FRB: Press Release--Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement--October 30, 2013

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September generally suggests that economic activity has continued to expand at a moderate pace. Indicators of labor market conditions have shown some further improvement, but the unemployment rate remains elevated. Available data suggest that household spending and business fixed investment advanced, while the recovery in the housing sector slowed somewhat in recent months. Fiscal policy is restraining economic growth. Apart from fluctuations due to changes in energy prices, inflation has been running below the Committee's longer-run objective, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic growth will pick up from its recent pace and the unemployment rate will gradually decline toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee sees the downside risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market as having diminished, on net, since last fall. The Committee recognizes that inflation persistently below its 2 percent objective could pose risks to economic performance, but it anticipates that inflation will move back toward its objective over the medium term.

Taking into account the extent of federal fiscal retrenchment over the past year, the Committee sees the improvement in economic activity and labor market conditions since it began its asset purchase program as consistent with growing underlying strength in the broader economy. However, the Committee decided to await more evidence that progress will be sustained before adjusting the pace of its purchases. Accordingly, the Committee decided to continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month and longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $45 billion per month. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. Taken together, these actions should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative, which in turn should promote a stronger economic recovery and help to ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with the Committee's dual mandate.

The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months and will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability. In judging when to moderate the pace of asset purchases, the Committee will, at its coming meetings, assess whether incoming information continues to support the Committee's expectation of ongoing improvement in labor market conditions and inflation moving back toward its longer-run objective. Asset purchases are not on a preset course, and the Committee's decisions about their pace will remain contingent on the Committee's economic outlook as well as its assessment of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases.

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens. In particular, the Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that this exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored. In determining how long to maintain a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy, the Committee will also consider other information, including additional measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; James Bullard; Charles L. Evans; Jerome H. Powell; Eric S. Rosengren; Jeremy C. Stein; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against the action was Esther L. George, who was concerned that the continued high level of monetary accommodation increased the risks of future economic and financial imbalances and, over time, could cause an increase in long-term inflation expectations.

米FOMC声明全文 | Reuters

9月のFOMC会合以降に入手した情報は全般的に、経済活動が引き続き緩やかなペース(at a moderate pace)で拡大していることを示唆している。労働市場に関する指標は幾分のさらなる改善(some further improvement)を示しているが、失業率は依然高止まりしている。入手可能なデータは、家計支出や企業による固定投資が増加した一方、住宅セクターの回復が最近数カ月間で幾分減速(slowed somewhat)したことを示唆している。財政政策が経済成長の制約となっている。エネルギー価格の変化に伴う変動を除けば、インフレはFOMCの長期目標を下回る水準で推移しているが、長期インフレ期待は引き続き安定している。



FOMCは今後数カ月間に入手する経済・金融動向の情報を注視する。物価安定の下、労働市場の見通しが著しく(substantially)改善するまで、FOMCは財務省証券とエージェンシー発行MBSの購入を継続し、その他の政策手段を適宜活用する。資産買い入れ縮小時期の決定に当たりFOMCは、雇用市場が継続的に改善しインフレが長期目標に向かって戻るとのFOMCの見方が、入手する情報によって引き続き裏付けられるかどうか今後の会合で判断する。資産買い入れはあらかじめ決められた軌道にはなく(not on a preset course)、買い入れペースに関する決定は引き続きFOMCの経済見通し、および想定される効果とコストに関する判断に左右される。

最大雇用と物価安定に向けた継続的な進展を支えるため、FOMCは、資産買い入れプログラムが終了し景気回復が強まった後もかなりの間(considerable time)、非常に緩和的なスタンス(highly accommodative stance)が引き続き適切になるとの見方を再確認した。具体的には、FOMCは、フェデラルファンド(FF)金利誘導目標水準をゼロ─0.25%に据え置くことを決定した。少なくとも失業率が6.5%を上回る水準にとどまるとともに、向こう1─2年のインフレ見通しがFOMCの長期目標である2%から0.5%ポイント以内に収まり、長期インフレ期待が引き続き十分抑制(well anchored)されている限り、FF金利を異例の低いレンジ(exceptionally low range)とすることが適切になると現時点で予想している。極めて緩和的な金融政策スタンスをどの程度の期間維持するか決定するに当たっては、労働市場の状況に関するさらなる尺度やインフレ圧力およびインフレ期待を示す指標、金融動向の見通しを含むその他の情報も考慮する。緩和解除の開始を決定する際には、最大雇用と2%のインフレ率という長期目標に沿うバランスの取れたアプローチを採る。


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