バフェット氏、シンプルで低コストの分散投資奨励＝株主宛て書簡 | Reuters
バフェット氏は１９８６年にネブラスカ州オマハ北部に購入した農場に言及。土地の価値を憶測したり売却益を狙ったりするのではなく、その土地で生産コストに対しどの程度のトウモロコシや大豆が収穫できるかを踏まえて購入したと説明した。
「購入から２８年経った今、農場の利益は３倍となり、支払った価格の５倍以上の価値を有している」と述べた。
「周りの雑音に耳を貸さず、コストを最低限に抑え、農場に投資するように株に投資する」ことを推奨した。
また、長期投資を選好するバフェット氏は、投資家は日ごとの価格変動に惑わされることなく、より大きな利益を得ることを目的にすべきとの考えを示した。
「素人の投資家は勝ち銘柄を選ぶのではなく、全体で良い結果を生むような幅広い業種（の株式を）を保有すべきだ」と強調した。
バフェット氏：素人は「流動性の呪い」に注意を、銘柄選別は無益 - Bloomberg
資産家で著名投資家のウォーレン・バフェット氏は、頻繁な株式売買を避けるよう投資家に忠告した。
バークシャー・ハサウェイの会長であるバフェット氏は投資家向けの年次書簡で、株式投資では不動産を購入する時と同じように、短期的な価格の変動ではなく長期的な収益の可能性に注目するべきだと説いた。書簡の抜粋が24日、フォーチュン誌のウェブサイトに掲載された。
バフェット氏は「農場や集合住宅だったら何十年でもじっと保有していられるのに、大量の株価情報を見せられると大慌てするのはよくあることだ。流動性は文句のつけようのない恩恵であるのに、こういう人々にとっては呪いへと変身してしまう」と記述している。
バフェット氏は1986年から保有しているバークシャーを、バイ・アンド・ホールドの長期投資アプローチによって2800億ドル（約28兆7000億円）規模の企業に育て上げた。コカ・コーラやアメリカン・エキスプレス、ウェルズ・ファーゴの筆頭株主となっている。
バフェット氏によれば、個人投資家は自分のように銘柄を選ぶのではなく、Ｓ＆Ｐ500種株価指数構成銘柄全てを含むファンドを買う方が良いかもしれない。「素人は値上がり銘柄を選ぼうとするべきではない。何も知らなくても投資先を分散しコストを最小限に抑えればほぼ確実に満足できる結果が得られる」という。
"Investment is most intelligent when it is most businesslike." --Benjamin Graham, The Intelligent Investor
It is fitting to have a Ben Graham quote open this essay because I owe so much of what I know about investing to him. I will talk more about Ben a bit later, and I will even sooner talk about common stocks. But let me first tell you about two small nonstock investments that I made long ago. Though neither changed my net worth by much, they are instructive.
You don't need to be an expert in order to achieve satisfactory investment returns. But if you aren't, you must recognize your limitations and follow a course certain to work reasonably well. Keep things simple and don't swing for the fences. When promised quick profits, respond with a quick "no."
Focus on the future productivity of the asset you are considering. If you don't feel comfortable making a rough estimate of the asset's future earnings, just forget it and move on. No one has the ability to evaluate every investment possibility. But omniscience isn't necessary; you only need to understand the actions you undertake.
If you instead focus on the prospective price change of a contemplated purchase, you are speculating. There is nothing improper about that. I know, however, that I am unable to speculate successfully, and I am skeptical of those who claim sustained success at doing so. Half of all coin-flippers will win their first toss; none of those winners has an expectation of profit if he continues to play the game. And the fact that a given asset has appreciated in the recent past is never a reason to buy it.
With my two small investments, I thought only of what the properties would produce and cared not at all about their daily valuations. Games are won by players who focus on the playing field -- not by those whose eyes are glued to the scoreboard. If you can enjoy Saturdays and Sundays without looking at stock prices, give it a try on weekdays.
Forming macro opinions or listening to the macro or market predictions of others is a waste of time. Indeed, it is dangerous because it may blur your vision of the facts that are truly important. (When I hear TV commentators glibly opine on what the market will do next, I am reminded of Mickey Mantle's scathing comment: "You don't know how easy this game is until you get into that broadcasting booth.")
And now back to Ben Graham. I learned most of the thoughts in this investment discussion from Ben's book The Intelligent Investor, which I bought in 1949. My financial life changed with that purchase.
Before reading Ben's book, I had wandered around the investing landscape, devouring everything written on the subject. Much of what I read fascinated me: I tried my hand at charting and at using market indicia to predict stock movements. I sat in brokerage offices watching the tape roll by, and I listened to commentators. All of this was fun, but I couldn't shake the feeling that I wasn't getting anywhere.
In contrast, Ben's ideas were explained logically in elegant, easy-to-understand prose (without Greek letters or complicated formulas). For me, the key points were laid out in what later editions labeled Chapters 8 and 20. These points guide my investing decisions today.
A couple of interesting sidelights about the book: Later editions included a postscript describing an unnamed investment that was a bonanza for Ben. Ben made the purchase in 1948 when he was writing the first edition and -- brace yourself -- the mystery company was Geico. If Ben had not recognized the special qualities of Geico when it was still in its infancy, my future and Berkshire's would have been far different.
The 1949 edition of the book also recommended a railroad stock that was then selling for $17 and earning about $10 per share. (One of the reasons I admired Ben was that he had the guts to use current examples, leaving himself open to sneers if he stumbled.) In part, that low valuation resulted from an accounting rule of the time that required the railroad to exclude from its reported earnings the substantial retained earnings of affiliates.
The recommended stock was Northern Pacific, and its most important affiliate was Chicago, Burlington & Quincy. These railroads are now important parts of BNSF (Burlington Northern Santa Fe), which is today fully owned by Berkshire. When I read the book, Northern Pacific had a market value of about $40 million. Now its successor (having added a great many properties, to be sure) earns that amount every four days.
I can't remember what I paid for that first copy of The Intelligent Investor. Whatever the cost, it would underscore the truth of Ben's adage: Price is what you pay; value is what you get. Of all the investments I ever made, buying Ben's book was the best (except for my purchase of two marriage licenses).
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