Twitter / SophieCo_RT: 'Federalizing #Ukraine the
'Federalizing #Ukraine the only way to handle East-West divide in the country" - John C. Hulsman, political analyst http://rt.com/shows/sophieco/ukraine-economy-rescue-politics-810/
'EU like Wizard of Oz – boasts of power while being immensely weak' ― RT SophieCo
A standoff over the Autonomous Republic of Crimea is grabbing global headlines, but Ukraine’s failing economy could prove to be a much larger problem for Kiev than territorial issues. How much longer can the financial heart of the country beat? Is the West ready to financially rescue a country with a completely devastated economy? To answer these questions and more, Sophie talks to Dr. John C. Hulsman, political analyst and expert on international relations.
Sophie Shevardnadze: Dr. John C. Hulsman, political analyst and expert on international relations, joining me from Berlin. It’s really great to have you on our program today. So I’m just going to start from the latest news: Ukraine’s Crimea has called a referendum to take place in the coming weeks. What do you expect? Is it going to vote to join the Russian Federation?
John Hulsman: I hope not, and the reason I hope not is that in the 90s, the Russians, the US, and the British agreed to Ukraine’s boundaries as they were then, in exchange for Ukraine doing away with nuclear weapons that were on its territory at the end of the Soviet Union. It does have two options, as you say: one, in a referendum to join Russia, the other is some form of going back to the 1992 constitution which gives it, in effect, de-facto, an awful lot of autonomy. I mean, it would be a confederation, whereby day to day the people of Crimea would be allowed to run their things, and frankly I think confederation suits Ukraine, as a whole Ukraine is such a divided polity, there is so many different cultural, ethnic, linguistic groups here, that the best sort of outcome to really lead to stability is what Thomas Jefferson had right: it’s less control, and this is always very hard for people on either side to really fathom, but the less control, the more local control there, is really the better for the country this varied, and so I’m very much hoping for that outcome.
SS: Why do you think there is so much resistance to the idea of a federated Ukraine? Because when you think about it, it could really take care of all its problems right now…
JH: I mean, there is so much bad blood. What everyone needs to do is to take a deep breath and see what’s best in the long-term for Ukraine. Henry Kissinger started that process in the US yesterday. He wrote an editorial where he said, “Look, Ukraine is always going to be more to Russia than just another state and if we don’t understand that in the West, we simply don’t understand what’s going on, we don’t understand history, sociology, economics, everything.” I think that’s an important point, and in return, one has to argue that people in Western Ukraine – and of course we’re speaking in generalities, many people don’t agree - but people in Western Ukraine, some of whom were in the Austro-Hungarian empire, some of whom look to the Catholic Church rather than the Orthodox Church, some of whom speak Ukrainian and not Russian – take your pick here, want to look more to the West, but on the other there are many, many people in Ukraine, particularly in the eastern part, and the southern part, and in Crimea, who want to look much more to Russia. The only way to solve this, a long-term way in terms of stability, is to have this decentralization, but that would mean the bad blood on both sides has to be tempered down, so I would urge everyone to take a deep breath.
SS: So why was the new Ukrainian parliament so preoccupied with the status of the Russian language in the first days in power, when it had so many other pressing economic problems to deal with?
JH: I think that’s revolutionary euphoria, which is almost always stupid. The Economist, which is a wonderfully written pro-Western magazine – and I’m certainly a pro-Western fellow and I agreed with the Economist - it was monumentally stupid, it sent all the wrong signals. What you need is an inclusive government that brings in people from southern and eastern Ukraine; if you want to have this confederal outcome, you don’t start abolishing Russian as another language as your first act, and this aided and abetted in everything that went after. There was a fire already, and this put gasoline on the fire, there’s no doubt about it, and in this new process, if we can get to a new confederation, one of the things the West and particularly the EU – I mean, it’s actually good in these kind of things – is to say, “Be more inclusive, bring people in from the east and the south.” They did go back on a Russian language issue already, but don’t do monumentally stupid things that just divide people further. And so, yes, that certainly was a very bad moment, but now we are where we are, as we say in the policy world, and the way forward to me is to say this; to push for inclusivity and, at the same time, push for a very decentralized Ukraine.
SS: I just want to follow that up, because obviously, that first attempt to strip Russian of its regional status was vetoed by the president, so it didn’t take place. But as we speak, in Kiev right now there are ultra-nationalist politicians deciding the fate of the Russian language. How’s that going to help defuse the situation?
JH: No, it’s not going to, and one of the problems post-revolution anywhere is to try to get more moderate elements who actually want to move beyond the revolutionary situation and reach some sort of moderation and outreach to the other side. You’ll never have peace afterwards – history proves that over and over and over again. The added gun to the head of Ukraine of course is that it’s flat broke; they don’t have time for this nonsense, basically according to the new government, they need 35 billion dollars in the next two years, even with the EU plumping up, let’s say, around 15 or so, and with the IMF money coming, which will lead to austerity, and making whatever government is in charge very unpopular. They still have to come up with an awful lot of money in the next two years – no one will want to invest here, in short-term, medium-term or long-term, if there is a continuing simmering revolution violence and one side picking on the other, in effect. So, for the good of the future of the country, this is where people in the EU begin quietly, behind the closed doors…Germans are very good at this kind of thing; they need to begin to say, “Look, stop with this nonsense and let’s move forward or you are not going to have a state to govern at all.”
SS: Talking about being flat-broke – the government in Kiev has announced a first round of cuts. Pensions for working retirees have been cut in half, that’s among other social spending reductions. How do you think people will react? Could they actually head to the streets again?
SS: But, here’s a question – can Ukraine afford more austerities? Because even if the IMF loan to help Ukraine’s economy is approved, it will lead to strict austerity. The fund will not go for it otherwise. What does that mean for Ukraine?
SS: Ukraine’s finances are in disarray, like you’ve said. Thirty-five billion is needed to just keep the country afloat, not to mention fix its economy. Regarding the association treaty, is the EU ready for a burden like that, while it still has to deal with its own crisis?
SS: So, you are thinking that the new government in Kiev can definitely expect a solid aid from the West? Because the EU and the US politicians have been vocal in their support for the Maidan politicians, but when Yanukovich was asking them for more than just 700 million, they were like, “Sorry, we can’t give you more,” so then he turned to Russia which was promising 15 billion. So do you think the new government can definitely expect help?
SS: Dr. Hulsman, what do you think about the potential of full EU membership for Ukraine? I mean, those who stood on Maidan Square surely thought it’s a possibility.
SS: So why do you think the Europeans were so pro-Maidan and so supportive of all those people who actually stood out there and some of them paid for it by their lives?
SS: Also, Mr. Yatzenuk, who is the head of a new government in Kiev, has said recently, two or three days ago in Europe, that this is not a “Ukraine-Russia conflict, this is a conflict in Europe.” Do you see it this way? Is Europe ready to see this as an internal problem?
SS: So you’re saying that the EU is not ready to undertake serious economic sanctions against Russia?
SS: Some members of the government who came to power after Maidan belong to ultra-nationalist forces, and are known for their anti-Semitic, anti-minority stance. How can the EU explain working with these people?
SS: Look, on Maidan those who are now in power in Kiev promised to cut big business out of politics, which was initially a huge problem and the core reason for this acute social protest that brought all these people up, nepotism and the oligarchs being in power. And now, we see them appointing oligarchs as governors – how do you explain that?
SS: But of course, the biggest tragedy in all of this is that a lot of people died during these protests and everyone was so quick to accuse those responsible – but a leaked phone conversation between Estonia’s foreign minister and Catherine Ashton confirmed the rumors that the opposition was responsible for sniper shooting in Kiev. I want us to hear this soundbite from their phone conversation right now:
PHONE CONVERSATION: All evidence shows that people who were killed by snipers, from both sides, among policemen and people from the streets, that they were the same snipers, killing people from both sides, and so that there is now stronger and stronger understanding that behind snipers it was not Yanukovich, but it was somebody from the new coalition.
SS: Why do you think they didn’t go public with these concerns?
SS: Thank you so much for your time, for this interesting interview. We were talking to Dr. John C. Hulsman, international relations expert, political analyst, talking about Ukraine – what else is there to talk about these days – and the future it will face, whether in the EU or outside of the EU. Thanks very much for that. That’s it for this edition of SophieCo, we will see you next time.
Twitter / SophieCo_RT: '#Ukraine revolution has no
'#Ukraine revolution has no choice but to hand power back to oligarchs'-if you missed the dashing John Hulsman, voila http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lIZ7P3JABYs
Twitter / SophieCo_RT: How's #EU like the Wizard of
How's #EU like the Wizard of Oz? Seriously watch John Hulsman, he's got all the answers (and he's sane and smart!) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lIZ7P3JABYs
