Russia is aiming to weaken the interim Ukrainian government ― "perhaps to the point of collapse" ― with a new de-escalation deal that has already run into major problems, said Eurasia Group president Ian Bremmer.
Bremmer told Business Insider the deal is "helpful" to keep diplomacy alive for at least a little while longer. But in the end, there are major problems with the deal. Some of its provisions, including all illegal groups disarming, will not likely be completed ― and Russia will look to exploit that.
"A key problem is the disarming of illegal groups ― from Moscow's perspective, that means Ukrainian paramilitary organizations too," Bremmer wrote in an email Friday morning.
One of the groups to which Bremmer is referring is the ultranationalist Right Sector.
The deal provides a path for Ukraine out of a Russian invasion. But it will also make its government much weaker ahead of the May 25 elections ― so the question is how far it wants to proceed down this path.
"There's lot of reason to be skeptical of the deal," Bremmer said.
"In short, it's a deal that aims to weaken the Ukrainian government, perhaps to the point of collapse. That's a way out of civil war and Russian invasion. But it's not one that Kiev is going to find attractive."